Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.723941 1.950470 2.191198 2.465593 2.769218 3.094414 3.468571
2024-12-22 1.440487 1.756884 2.114678 2.547436 3.054763 3.628663 4.324904
2024-12-29 1.272206 1.664032 2.133248 2.732088 3.471127 4.348095 5.461723
2025-01-05 1.049443 1.473935 2.012467 2.737332 3.677838 4.846284 6.395590
2025-01-12 0.885159 1.333250 1.934519 2.786075 3.944280 5.445760 7.517031
2025-01-19 0.737977 1.192535 1.837494 2.797586 4.164133 6.008900 8.650169
2025-01-26 0.647256 1.117747 1.821046 2.917109 4.542859 6.818584 10.186022
2025-02-02 0.563338 1.039373 1.788514 3.009230 4.892907 7.621873 11.786761
2025-02-09 0.483313 0.953287 1.731860 3.057433 5.183032 8.365842 13.368372
2025-02-16 0.417622 0.879666 1.684355 3.113361 5.489864 9.160334 15.089301
2025-02-23 0.346092 0.781588 1.580872 3.063494 5.622655 9.700924 16.471595
2025-03-02 0.282384 0.685166 1.464961 2.976127 5.682620 10.130208 17.713447
2025-03-09 0.240184 0.625712 1.412159 3.001964 5.951274 10.940440 19.661962
2025-03-16 0.200090 0.561524 1.339775 2.982241 6.139196 11.636302 21.485920
2025-03-23 0.178025 0.533781 1.337072 3.096902 6.583853 12.806613 24.191056
2025-03-30 0.145088 0.470667 1.248038 3.026492 6.675395 13.371616 25.913568
2025-04-06 0.121978 0.426559 1.193028 3.018496 6.885631 14.164855 28.091057
2025-04-13 0.101150 0.382411 1.129358 2.982165 7.034844 14.857803 30.140127
2025-04-20 0.089695 0.362607 1.121260 3.068334 7.441760 16.060579 33.187715
2025-04-27 0.078729 0.340922 1.104334 3.131701 7.807122 17.211269 36.214705
2025-05-04 0.067769 0.315531 1.072572 3.154977 8.088217 18.218386 39.037284
2025-05-11 0.058810 0.294071 1.047404 3.190807 8.400196 19.308685 42.085630
2025-05-18 0.048257 0.262213 0.985225 3.122772 8.469614 19.913052 44.231548